Human Lens #146: Production Oscars Preview

The major awards categories will feature a heavy winner with a couple of surprises mixed in.

I present to you the second part of my Oscars preview this year. This is where we get to the juicy awards everyone is tuning in for, so let’s get right into it!

Before you ask, Best Picture will be getting an entire article of it’s own on Sunday. I didn’t forget about it, don’t worry.

Actor in a Leading Role

Will Win: Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer

Watch For: Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers

Cillian Murphy has been well liked in Hollywood for a long time, and his strong relationship with Christopher Nolan has gifted him an incredible awards season run. Muprhy’s turn as Oppenheimer, unlike previous winners and nominees for biopics, is an interpretation instead of an imitation. His dedicated sense of discovery in the first half of the film is so inspirational, and then comes to a screeching and horrifying halt when he regrets everything his character has done in the second half. It’s the definition of a performance that matches its script, hammering home the message of a movie that would have been strong without him, but is only in the conversation for best picture this year because of Murphy. As much as I love Murphy though, there’s a veteran of his craft across the aisle in Paul Giamatti. His emotional vulnerability and delivery of truths throughout The Holdovers is intoxicating, and it would be the first Oscar win ever for the older journeyman actor — the Academy loves awarding journeymen over the betting favorite.

Actor in a Supporting Role

Will Win: Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer

Watch For: Ryan Gosling - Barbie

Robert Downey Jr. has brought his broom with him throughout awards season, paving the way for what looks to be an easy win for the first Oscar of his career (in 3 nominations). Downey Jr’s performance as the lesser known (to younger audience members like myself) political manipulator that tried to ruin Oppenheimer’s life is sensational. While his years as Iron Man were entertaining, it’s so nice to see him challenge himself and take a chance, pulling out an impressive performance that’s getting the praise it deserves. The only threat to his sweep, while minor, is most likely Ryan Gosling, who may get votes from the Academy due to feeling bad about snubbing Barbie from certain awards and the interesting talk that this is a lot of people’s favorite performance of his.

Actress in a Leading Role

Will Win: Lily Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon

Watch For: Emma Stone - Poor Things

This is an extremely tight race that’s hard to gauge where it’s going. It’s safe to lean towards Lily Gladstone, whose victory would mark history for her as the first actor of Native American decent to win an Oscar. She totally deserves recognition too, with her subtle layering of emotional trauma with resolute calm and kindness as Molly Burkhart in Killers of the Flower Moon. Her performance takes a memorable turn when she’s sick for most of the middle portion of the film, making you feel for the prison she’s unknowingly being placed in. But Gladstone’s screen time is more akin to a supporting performance, making Emma Stone’s work in Poor Things a real threat to spoil history. Stone is no stranger to the Oscars, with four acting nominations and one win (La La Land), and her vulnerability in Poor Things is equal parts surprising and intoxicating. It’s a coming of age story for adults, allowing Stone to give a truly unique, and often hilarious, performance about the pitfalls of life around us.

Actress in a Supporting Role

Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers

Watch For: America Ferrera - Barbie

Da’Vine Joy Randolph’s performance in The Holdovers is that rare time when a character with such emotional baggage feels like a warm hug while you’re watching them. I wouldn’t wish the emotions of this character upon anyone, but her resolute wisdom is unshakable, and that comes from Randolph herself. Every time she’s on screen in the film she’s able to steal the spotlight from Giamatti, an incredible feat when he’s someone who may finally walk away with an Oscar himself on Sunday. Randolph has swept this entire awards season, but after the Supporting Actress drama at last year’s Oscars, it shouldn’t be surprising if American Ferrera steals the win from the obvious winner because of her speech about womanhood alone in the Summer hit Barbie.

Animated Feature Film

Will Win: The Boy and the Heron

Watch For: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Another tight race this year is in animated feature; coming down to the box office phenomenon that deconstructs the comic book medium in shocking ways, versus the fantasy of self reflection for an 80 year old legendary animator. Both Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and The Boy and the Heron are among the top 5 films of the whole year, making this the tightest race of Oscar’s night. Ultimately, it’s hard to deny the emotional themes and overall messaging with The Boy and the Heron. While this animated Spider-Man saga is changing the entire industry’s standards when it comes to breaking the mold in animation, there’s something about hand drawn animation that will always be special. Plus, how many more movies does the 80-year old Hayao Miyazaki have left in him? If this is the last film he’s able to complete, an ode to a legendary career feels in order for what turned out to be his most personal film.

Directing

Will Win: Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer

Watch For: Yorgos Lanthimos - Poor Things

Christopher Nolan is well overdue for achieving this award, and Oppenheimer is finally the film that’ll get him up on stage. While Nolan is no stranger to screwing around with time, he masterfully orchestrates multiple eras of real history, mostly in the POV of his main character, to a thrilling climax for all of them at the same point in the film. Keeping an all star cast like this all on the same page and in understanding of the nearly 700 page Pulitzer Prize winning biography that it’s based on is no small feat, making this upcoming win be a breath of fresh air for Nolan fans, but also one that can’t be denied by Nolan critics. For the sake of spicing things up, I wrote Yorgos Lanthimos as a spoiler, but this race has already been decided.

International Feature Film

Will Win: The Zone of Interest - United Kingdom

Watch For: Society of the Snow - Spain

While The Zone of Interest has been floating around as a possible film to unseat Oppenheimer’s clear path to winning Best Picture, it’s nomination for International Feature, and it’s stature above its fellow nominees, probably removes it from that attention. I’ve already written about how incredible this film is multiple times, and its path here seems impossible to unseat. Netflix’s Society of the Snow seems to be the only other film with traction after emotionally capturing audience’s attention for a few weeks at the start of the year.

Adapted Screenplay

Will Win: American Fiction - Cord Jefferson

Watch For: Oppenheimer - Christopher Nolan

While it wouldn’t be my choice to win the award, its popularity among others can be undenied, and it seems that American Fiction is getting a lot of love from the writers in Hollywood. Cord Jefferson’s comedic screenplay about the hypocrisy and madness behind the entertainment industry’s manipulation and base definition of the black experience just seems to keep winning, and no one dislikes it. While the direction of the film leaves more to be desired, its screenplay is snappy and emotional, drawing you in and leaving you with a great portrait for the people it’s exploring. But this will most likely be a 3-way race, as Barbie and Oppenheimer have been getting praise for their screenplays since the moment they released. Nolan most likely has the edge to be the spoiler with how complicated Oppenheimer’s adaptation was, but Barbie’s emotional undercurrent, and that speech by America Ferrera, could draw attention from voters.

Original Screenplay

Will Win: Anatomy of a Fall - Justine Triet and Arthur Harari

Watch For: The Holdovers - David Hemingson

What an incredible batch of original screenplays this year. I would love to see Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik win for their first feature screenplay, May December, or Celine Song at least nab one Oscar in her debut screenplay, Past Lives. However, these films’ presence throughout the marketing and self promotion of awards season left much to be desired, and they’ve fallen from any chance of winning. Justine Triet and Arthur Harari’s screenplay for Anatomy of a Fall is unbelievable in the fact that it’s not adapted. It is so rare to find a court drama with this much detail and research that wasn’t already done in a novel beforehand. On top of that, it allows the viewer to decide for themselves what they believe in, making it a great portrait into the legal system and creating a great conversation long after the credits roll. But speaking of rare films, an emotional and slower paced Christmas movie in the style of ‘70s and ‘80s dramas is rarely seen now as well, and the written word for The Holdovers produced three of the best performances of the year, placing it in a key position to upset the French thriller.